The PwC report “Five Trends Transforming the Automotive Industry” outlines a series of seemingly contradictory findings. For example, while vehicle count could fall dramatically in Europe and the US in 2030, traffic on the roads will become even heavier. And although the number of new registrations will rise considerably, many conventional manufacturers and suppliers will come under pressure.
The report says by 2030 vehicle count in China is expected to increase by almost 50%, over 30% of vehicular travel will be shared and 40% of vehicle travel will be done in AVs, 55% of cars sold will be electric, and personal travel by car could rise by 23% in Europe, 24% in the US and 183% in China.
What do these trends mean for manufacturers and suppliers? The PwC scenario assumes that the number of annual new registrations in Europe may increase by one third to more than 24 million cars by 2030; this would be the only way to compensate for the higher wear and tear on cars due to car-sharing concepts. For the US, PwC Autofacts assumes that there could be growth of 20% and new car sales of almost 22 million in the year 2030. For China, a rise of over 30% to 35 million units sold is expected. This large volume will require car manufacturers and suppliers to make additional investment in new production and development capacity for new, highly specialised vehicle concepts at much lower prices.
