Automotive market research and data firm Polk is forecasting that the global light vehicle market will expand 6.7% to 77.7m vehicles in 2012. The upbeat forecast from Polk is driven by yet higher sales in China and a belief among Polk analysts that the global economy will weather the current European sovereign debt crisis and buyers will return to showrooms around the world in 2012 China is expected to make the largest contribution to global sales growth for new vehicles, according to Polk, with an anticipated 16% increase over 2011. Polk analysts anticipate that much of this growth will occur outside of the large metropolitan cities of Shanghai and Beijing.
The US vehicle market , Polk says, will experience single digit growth, primarily due to the relatively strong year for sales in 2011, and the effects of the weak economy that will continue to impact new vehicle demand through most of 2012. Light vehicle sales are expected to grow at a moderate pace, with a 7% increase to 13.7m vehicles, according to Polk analysts, but they do not expect the US market to achieve pre-recession levels of greater than 16m vehicles per year until 2015. The luxury segment in the U.S. market in 2012 is expected to be the fastest growing segment, with more than 14% growth, according to Polk.
European sales are expected to be flat or down slightly, to just over 19m units, according to Polk. Austerity plans will prevent governments in Europe from boosting 2012 sales through scrappage programs and other incentives offered in previous years.
Polk maintains that growth in the other BRIC countries will outpace many mature markets over the next few years. As an example, Polk expects Brazil to surpass Germany as 2011 sales results are finalised, and new vehicle sales in India are expected to surpass those sold in Germany in 2014. While Polk forecasts that sales growth in Russia will be flat in 2012, it anticipates that sales in Russia will outpace Germany by the year 2015.
